Japan's economy likely to grow in 2025 but Trump tariffs cast shadow

The Japanese economy is expected to continue to grow at a moderate pace in 2025 supported by solid consumer spending on the back of wage hikes and the government's policies aimed at easing inflation pain.

Yet all the news from the past week was that both holiday spending and wages remain flat.

But need some propaganda so people think the Japan Inc./LDP combine is doing something besides lining their own pockets and insulting the people's intelligence.

Such a development could lower Japan's real GDP by an additional 0.12 point, according to Kobayashi.

So then Japanese workers can have the same experience as Trump voters in the US when they find out tariffs, restricting immigrants and massive tax breaks for billionaires is not the solution for bringing down inflation and raising wages.

but Trump tariffs cast shadow

There would have to be an actual tariff to “cast a shadow,” but the Trump tariffs, like his mass deportation “plans” and his Mexico-funded wall, appear to simply be hollow threats to generate MAGA praise that transforms into votes.

""Analysts also warn of downside risks from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's protectionist approach to international trade.""

Mr. Trump must have watched and learned how to become a PROTECTIONIST, America is probably the most exploited Free Market in the world, and yet whenever Trump talks Fair Trade others start crying Protectionism.

like his mass deportation “plans” 

You’re absolutely correct, Bobby.

Trump is now backing away from his immigration crackdown. He restricted access to foreign worker visas during his first term and has targeted the H-1B program in past remarks.

But after Musk and Ramaswamy argued in favor of expanding the visa program for highly skilled workers, Trump is now claiming to be “a believer in H-1B.”

Flip-flop.

Anyone who supported Trump because of this issue should have realized that he’s a serial scammer.

Good News for Japan, Good News for everyone who works as hard as the Japanese workers do.

Glad to see Japan shaking off the vicious deflation cycles it's been suffering from for the past 30 or so years.

The KEY is to KEEP increasing these wages and pension to match inflation so people can keep up.

The KEY is to KEEP increasing these wages and pension to match inflation so people can keep up.

Which clearly isn't going to happen in any meaningful way.

IMF had Japan pegged for 1.1 % GDP growth in 2025 back in October. This likely will be revised down as well.

@asianman, Anyone who supported Trump because of this issue should have realized that he’s a serial scammer.....most people who don't support Mr t would already realise that, but Mr t supporter's don't or realise there being scammed, and probably never will, as he's the best thing since sliced bread,

REAL wags are what matter for GDP growth (which is likewise measured in real terms) and those have been stagnating or even declining in Japan for years. Full-year figure for 2023, the most recent year available (of course) was minus 2.7% and monthly rates this year are similar. It’s hard to see that changing anytime soon.and for anyone to say otherwise is about as far removed from reality as calling a year which started with an earthquake and a plane crash ‘golden’.

The biggest Japanese export to the United States is motor vehicles. However, 70% are manufactured in the United States while only 30% are produced in Japan and shipped to the U.S.

So much for tariffs on this one.

A fundamental requirement for tariffs to work is that by raising the price of an imported product to the consumer, the domestically produced product becomes artificially competitive, causing the consumer to choose the latter. But a problem with this thinking is that with many products there exists no domestic competitive product. In which all it does is raise prices to the consumer without any benefit to the balance of trade. Trump's constant Tariff whine is much more a negotiating tactic than anything else because he's a deal maker and a stable genius.

Click bait article using the Trump name. US media made a killing during his first term demonizing him non-stop (think CNN). Their ratings were never better than they were 2016-2020.

Tariff threats are a bargaining tool, and he may even temporarily implement some. Any good negotiator looks for an advantage. It's how the world leaders jockey for leadership points and votes. The Japanese economy will be minimally affected, if at all.

It amuses me how so many JT regulars want the worst for China but whenever the Japanese economy is discussed in an article China is mentioned as an important factor for a good Japanese economy.

the Trump tariffs...appear to simply be hollow threats to generate MAGA praise that transforms into votes.

I completely agree, and I really, really hope we're right about that. Actual broadly-applied tariffs are a dismally poor idea (but one that appeals to low-information, emotion-driven voters).

Trump baaaaaaad

Not-Trump goooooood.

(Up-votes, please.)

Either Japan is too much dependable over the USA, or those articles presents USA as the only other trading and business partner, forgetting there tare are, literally, hundreds of other countries out there in Europe, Asia, North and South America, Australia, Africa, etc.

The USA is not the whole world you know.

DanteKHToday 03:15 pm JST

Either Japan is too much dependable over the USA, or those articles presents USA as the only other trading and business partner, forgetting there tare are, literally, hundreds of other countries out there in Europe, Asia, North and South America, Australia, Africa, etc.

The USA is not the whole world you know.

How many of them represent 300 million people with a single language and the money to buy Japanese products? Even China doesn't have many choices.

EU's population is 450 million, while Europe's population is 742 million.

Middle East's population is 380 million.

Asia's population is 4.6 billion, while Africa's population is 1.4 billion.

Still think the USA is the only major country to trade??

DanteKHDec. 29 08:42 pm JST

EU's population is 450 million, while Europe's population is 742 million.

The opposite of a single language.

Middle East's population is 380 million.

Only able to afford very specific items outside of a few petrostates.

Asia's population is 4.6 billion, while Africa's population is 1.4 billion.

See the above.

Still think the USA is the only major country to trade??

For some goods, yes.

DanteKHDec. 29 08:42 pm JST

Another way to look at it is that China has the dirt cheap product market cornered. Even in the West. If you are selling high end goods, they have to go to very specific places that can afford them.

Where’s the story about November’s inflation accelerating to 2.9% from 2.2% in October? Bad news buried? Japan’s CPI is the highest of the G7