If you’ve noticed your grocery bill climbing higher, you’re not alone. Food prices in Japan spiked to their highest levels, affecting nearly 3,000 products. Extreme weather, depreciation of the yen, and the rise in energy costs are the primary culprits. While energy costs are cyclical, and the yen’s depreciation could be managed through monetary policy, extreme weather risks to food supply chains in Japan are increasing and require immediate attention, given its unique food system economy.
In 2023, Japan’s inflation rate hit a 41-year high. At the same time, Japan’s food self-sufficiency has fallen from around 50 percent in the 1980s to 38 percent today — the lowest among major advanced countries. As countries worldwide face their own agricultural and economic challenges from climate change — droughts in the U.S., flooding in Europe, and heatwaves in South America — Japan’s reliance on foreign markets places it at a distinct risk.
Looking at the top imported foods in Japan — wheat, corn, soybean, meats, and vegetables — reveals the extent of its dependence. Without enough land to produce food for its dense population, Japan relies often on just a handful of countries for staple food items. The concentration of Japan’s food supply chain means that the country is more vulnerable than most when global conditions change. When climate events or geopolitical tensions impact those countries, Japan’s food security becomes tenuous, leading to direct and often sharp impacts on grocery prices.
Japan’s import dependence is only increasing as diets shift toward globally sourced foods. Over the last 40 years, wheat-based products like bread and pasta, for instance, have become more popular than rice in Japan. While consumption patterns change, climate disasters disrupt food supply chains and drive up costs. Wheat prices jumped 10 percent in 2022 amid droughts, extreme heat, and floods in Canada, the U.S., and Australia — top suppliers for Japan — and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This year, the price of coffee surged by nearly 20 percent, following droughts in Brazil and a typhoon in Vietnam. Intense heat and rains in West Africa contributed to a 136 percent price surge of cocoa between 2022 and 2024.
It’s not just the food that Japan imports. The quality and price of its largest domestic crop — rice — is also threatened. The production of this staple food is increasingly susceptible to erratic climate shifts and economic pressures. The price of newly harvested rice in Japan surged 28 percent over the summer and 48 percent this fall after extreme heat reduced last season’s harvest and demand outpaced supply. If Japan does not adopt more climate resilient strategies, like heat tolerant rice varieties, crop yields could decline by 30 percent by 2050.
As a result, Japan’s food security faces a double whammy: both its local crop production and the international supply chain it relies on are highly vulnerable. If nothing changes, grocery prices will continue to rise — fueling a cost-of-living crisis while an aging population strains the economy and government resources.
Addressing the global crisis of climate change requires a global solution. Japanese lawmakers face a distinct opportunity to rebuild a resilient food system and lead in climate adaptation.
One way to do this is to develop Supply Chain Climate Action plans linked to specific crops. The Japanese government in collaboration with the private companies in the food, agrochemical, and transportation sectors would lead these plans. They would first identify vulnerable global food supply chains. Then map out areas prone to climate risks, critical transport routes, and important farming regions. Finally, they would develop strategies to reduce these risks, such as climate-resistant seeds, diversifying transport methods, investing in technology to detect hazards, and making strategic investments in growing regions/processors globally.s.
Qatar has implemented a version of these initiatives although at a smaller scale(Japan’s population is almost 35 times that of Qatar). Qatar imports nearly 100 percent of its food due to its arid climate and limited agricultural land. But the Gulf nation has taken significant steps to safeguard its food security, developing a robust, diversified food supply system that’s shielded from market and climate volatility. A blockade in 2017 jolted Qatar into dramatically redesigning its supply chains, an effort that has continued to help insulate it from economic upheavals. When the coronavirus pandemic drove many countries into a recession and shocked supply chains, Qatar reported a fiscal surplus in 2020 — thanks to increased self-sufficiency.
Qatar has heavily invested in food security by building strategic partnerships with international producers, adopting high-tech solutions like vertical farming, and cultivating a robust network of suppliers. As an example, Hassad Foods(the fully owned subsidiary of Qatar Investment Authority) has made a strategic investment worth $1 billion in acquiring farms and processing operations globally. While Japan’s institutions differ, Qatar’s model demonstrates that even countries dependent on food imports can successfully build resilient, self-sufficient supply chains.
Food security is not just about ensuring enough food for today but about creating a sustainable, diversified system that serves future generations. The current increase in grocery prices is just the beginning of the climate premium that Japanese consumers are paying. However, Japan has an opportunity to not only lower it but create a Japan model of achieving food security resilience under climate change for other nations.
*Himanshu Gupta is *CEO and co-founder of ClimateAi, a climate mitigation platform named as one of America’s Top Greentech Companies in 2024.
© Japan Today
5 Comments
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falseflagsteve
Another sensationalist article mostly devoid of the truth. As we see at the end the person who wrote this is CEO of a “greentech” company, what a surprise.
Main reasons for inflation in Japan are the after effects of Covid, the Ukraine conflict and the ever weakening Yen.
sakurasuki
Simple just import. Where all those high imported revenue go? What really to protect?
https://www.quora.com/Why-has-Japan-retained-a-778-tariff-on-their-imported-rice
GBR48
This does sound like a guy drumming up business for his company. Plus the Chinese angle of having the state pay for it. Getting the state involved will just see loads of tax revenue slipped into pockets.
Japan, like other countries, has competent food buyers monitoring markets on behalf of private industry. Their biggest problem is the state, placing tariffs on imports, restricting them in other ways and limiting domestic production by restricting incoming migrant labour. Competent governments keep costs down by avoiding inflation wherever possible. Inflation makes people poor and governments unpopular.
Food will get scarcer because of climate change. The BRICS leaning nations and the Global South are primary producers, so Western leaning nations will find it tougher. To keep poverty and shortages from the door, avoid tariffs, sanctions and any non-essential blocks to trade. Diversify your sources and don't be picky. Brexit is a good example of how to damage your food supply, domestic and imported, so learn from it and avoid replicating it.
piskian
Well said,@GBR48.
Japan has already succumbed to the hubris we had as automotive producers , let's ensure that they don't go down the isolationist road again.
gaijintraveller
So why is Japan covering good agricultural land with solar panels. I live in the Chiba countryside and often wonder when Chiba's main agricultural product will be electricity.