Japan has not engaged in war since World War II, maintaining a pacifist stance under its post-war constitution. However, rising tensions in East Asia — partly due to China’s military activities near Taiwan, North Korea’s missile threats and territorial disputes — are increasing security concerns for Japan and its allies. But what happens if Japan is attacked in an act of war?
In the event of a military emergency, foreign residents in Japan might want to know evacuation procedures and potential outcomes. This article is an overview of the general procedures foreign residents would follow during a military emergency in Japan, based on information from official sources and simulations.
Evacuations and Multilingual Challenges
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Restrictions Could Be Like COVID-19 Lockdowns
The Immediate Response
Japan’s Article 9 renounces war, but legal reinterpretations allow self-defense and counterattacks if Japan or its allies are under attack. The 2014 security shift enabled collective self-defense, meaning Japan can retaliate if an attack threatens its survival. In 2022, Japan expanded its military strategy by acquiring counterstrike capabilities, allowing it to hit enemy bases if an attack is imminent.
However, Japan cannot wage offensive war and must follow strict self-defense conditions. If an attack occurred in Japan, the government would likely declare a state of emergency and activate civil defense measures. These measures would involve ordering evacuations, enforcing shelter directives, and mobilizing the military. Authorities could impose restrictions on infrastructure, transportation, and communications. Law enforcement and emergency services would enforce curfews, maintain order, and assist with evacuation efforts.
In the event of a military emergency, intelligence agencies would actively monitor threats. Initially, they might withhold details to prevent public panic. Once confirming an attack, the government would declare a national emergency, mobilize the JSDF, and activate J-Alert to warn residents of missile strikes or invasions. Officials would issue evacuation orders and safety instructions while police, fire services, and rescue teams responded as needed
What Regional Risks Could Lead to a Crisis?
Several geopolitical risks could escalate into a military emergency, including:
- China’s maritime disputes over the Senkaku Islands and the East China Sea
- North Korea’s missile threats
- Territorial disputes with Russia
- The impact of disputes between China and Taiwan on Okinawa and Japan’s southwestern islands
Evacuations and Multilingual Challenges
In case of an imminent attack, Japan has designated evacuation shelters (避難所, hinanjo) for emergencies, including natural disasters and military threats. These are typically located in schools, community centers, and gymnasiums and are managed by local governments. While some provide multilingual support, most operate primarily in Japanese, which could pose challenges for foreign residents.
Local authorities may or may not provide interpreters for non-Japanese speakers. Multilingual support might exist in major cities, but access to interpretation services would be limited in smaller municipalities. Foreign residents should prepare by downloading translation apps or carrying a printed emergency phrase guide in Japanese.
A military emergency could close airports and seaports. If travel routes were blocked, foreign residents would need to seek guidance from their embassies, which might arrange emergency repatriation flights or alternative evacuation methods.
The U.S. Military
In a military emergency, the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty (日米安全保障条約, Nichibei Anzen Hoshō Joyaku) would likely come into effect, meaning U.S. military actions would be expected to assist in Japan’s defense. There are 120 U.S. military installations in Japan, with around 32 located in Okinawa. Major bases include Yokota Air Base in Tokyo, Yokosuka Naval Base in Kanagawa and Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. Okinawa has many U.S. military installations, making it a key strategic location for U.S. forces in the region.
Under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, the U.S. military is obligated to assist in Japan’s defense in the event of an armed attack on Japanese territories. Both nations regularly conduct joint exercises to enhance interoperability and deterrence, ensuring preparedness for such scenarios.
However, the extent and speed of U.S. involvement would vary depending on the severity of the situation and U.S. politics. While the U.S. has a strong commitment to Japan’s defense, its response might not be immediate or purely military. Diplomatic measures, such as sanctions, could also play a role.
Moreover, the nature of the attack matters:
- If Japan is attacked by a nation-state (e.g., China or North Korea), U.S. involvement would likely be more direct due to alliance obligations and global security interests.
- If the attack is a limited skirmish, cyberattack or gray-zone conflict, the U.S. might first respond with non-military actions, such as diplomatic efforts, economic sanctions or cyber defense assistance.
- The U.S. response may also depend on Japan’s request—Japan must invoke the treaty for U.S. involvement.
The International Response
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26 Comments
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TaiwanIsNotChina
Depends whether the US is still there to carry the day.
Primusinter
Russia has no territorial claims against Japan. So sleep well. Don't scare your people
Mocheake
If Japan were attacked, the people living here would be in a world of hurt, to put it very plainly.
GuruMick
None of the above scenarios seem likely...if they did occur Japan could be sold to Trump and be under the US Defence umbrella.
No one is going to war over fishing shoals.
NK knows attacking a US ally means the end of lil Kim
Russia hardly going to start a territorial war while currently waging one at the other, far ,far end of its current territory.
China can wait until all Japanese are aged over 100 years old and take over one geriatric home at a time.
Seriously, Japan has a lot of friends world wide and that would give pause to rash actions by a rogue state.
wallace
This is a bit little in the 1960s. What to do in a nuclear attack.
GuruMick
Wallace....under the desk in case of nukes when at school
Primusinter
"The government will continue its policy aimed at resolving the issue of the ownership of the four northern islands and concluding a peace treaty," said Shigeru Ishiba.
Tokyo also wants to get Moscow to resume a program of visits to graves by former residents of the Kuril Islands.
Meanwhile, Russia is not going to resume negotiations on a possible peace agreement with Japan on the Kuril Islands because of its hostile position. The Kremlin has repeatedly noted that all four islands are an integral part of the Russian Federation.
So, there are no problems.
If Japan had not behaved aggressively towards Russia, it would have continued to receive cheap gas, wood, and Japanese fishermen would have quietly fished in Russian territorial waters. The problem is not in Russia, but in Japan itself. Russia has no claims against Japan. And Russia does not threaten anyone in this region. You yourself, with your provocative statements, are the source of all the problems.
Primusinter
With friends like America (now) and Germany (in the 30s and 40s), there is no need in enemies. Such friends are always able to provide problems.
Zaphod
It is not easy to attack Japan, and nobody has any intention to do so. However, I agree that bilingual communication from the authorities should be promoted.
bass4funk
They will be.
1glenn
It is ironic that those who wish to avoid war must be prepared to fight one.
As for the obese convicted felon sitting in the Oval Office, he is so busy destroying our alliances that nothing can be assumed.
bass4funk
He didn't destroy our alliance, because if he did, they wouldn't ask us for money all the time. Europe won't go to China or Russia so......
iknowall
Which alliance did Trump destroy?
Zaphod
Primusinter
Exactly. To the contrary, Japan has territorial claims against Russia (they want to the Kuriles back). Thankfully that is all theatrical posturing, and everybody knows it.
The idea that Japan need American bases with all the problems they bring is ridiculous.
dobre vam zajebava
i see no reason why we have to worry about.
we have american boots on the ground here.best army in the world.
so why to worry?
TaiwanIsNotChina
For one, what money do NATO or Japan ask for from the US? Second, Europe has already played footsie with China and russia in the past. Why give them an excuse to do so again with American cowardice?
TaiwanIsNotChina
russia has to do whatever Xi bids of them. They would be happy to see US bases removed from Japan.
deanzaZZR
The next crisis for Japan will be Trump demanding Okinawa. Mark it down.
bass4funk
They have been allies to the US since the end of the 19th century.
Relax, the US will always be there to help Japan.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Lose what, a war? How do you think that will effect NATO? How long do you think it will take to starve them out without a blockade?
TaiwanIsNotChina
Are you under the impression that all allies ask for money? Also we haven't been allies until post-WW2.
Not if we are sent packing due to cowardice we won't.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Pro-tip: you have to do more than answer questions with belligerence and nonsense. A leader has to carry out some actions at some point.
Yrral
Japanese would be sitting duck, especially since Trump is President
Desert Tortoise
Laughable. Japan entered WWI to gain control of Germay's colonial holdings in the Pacific, such as Rabaul, the northern third of what is now Papua New Guinea, the Bismark Archipelago and other island possessions the Germans held. From the end or WWI onward the US Navy considered Japan to be its greatest likely adversary and began in earnest to develop what at the time were advanced naval propulsion systems (high pressure superheated dry steam power plants) and underway replenishment in addition to developing tactics to employ aircraft carriers during their annual fleet "problems". Don't forget the sinking of USS Panay on the Yangtze River by Japanese forces in 1937 and the calls even then to declare war on Japan, though the US was in no way ready to do so at that time. That act did however spur urgent fleet construction authorized by Congress.
Zaphod
Yrral
That would be the best armed duck in the world, and Trump has nothing to do with that.
bass4funk
Again, Canada would lose.
Yes and yes.
That won't happen, so rest assured.