'Unscientific' Japan megaquake rumors spook Hong Kong tourists

'Unscientific' Japan megaquake rumors

Was the news source NHK?

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/3910/

Japan's mega-quake death toll estimated at about 300,000 in worst-case scenario

Tuesday April 1, 2025

A government panel has revised its damage estimate for an anticipated mega-quake in the Nankai Trough off Japan's Pacific coast. It predicts that an earthquake of up to magnitude 9 will claim about 298,000 lives. Seismologists say there is a roughly 80 percent chance of such a quake occurring in the next 30 years.

If a major natural disaster did occur, I would imagine the current overtourism would place a monumental strain on the nation’s infrastructure and support system.

With the number of "Bento Bogins" streaming into Japan, I don't think a few Hong Kong visitors will be missed. And if you base your decisions made by a comic book, maybe give your head a shake!

Only if Tatsuki Ryo didn't get the March 2011 date right....

We will see if she gets July 2025 date right again in 50 days....

https://i0.wp.com/jbj.luf.temporary.site/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/watashigamitamirai-2020-5-22-1.jpg?ssl=1

Was the news source NHK?

What is unscientific about the article you link to?

Over 70% of the casualties are expected to be caused by tsunami, with most occurring in Yokohama/Kamakura and Shikoku areas.

Staying away from those areas, or simply evacuating immediately, can reduce deaths significantly.

In the NHK source mentioned above by Kazuko, the correspondent says, “If everyone evacuates immediately after the quake, the data shows we can reduce tsunami deaths by seventy percent.”

What is unscientific about the article you link to?

I think she was being facetious.

Well......we could use a few less tourists..........

The Japan Meteorological Agency's Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information advisory on a megaquake in August 2024 had pretty much the same effect. Twitchy people are twitchy.

Although Japan has millions of tourists a year, at any given time the number is relatively tiny against the numbers of locals, and much of Japan gets no tourists. So maybe something else to stop being so twitchy about.

Some of the false posts cite a Japanese manga comic, republished in 2021, which predicts a major natural disaster in July 2025 -- based on the author's dream.

I remember seeing this on YouTube. It's supposed to happen on the 5th of July at 5am. That's the time the author gave. Also, the tsunamis are supposed to be 4 times higher than those on 3/11.

Pretty scary stuff.

Southern Chinese are notoriously superstitious.,

If it puts a handbrake on out of control tourism, good.

Some of the false posts cite a Japanese manga comic,

Japan Today (this site!) reported earlier this month that this manga author, Ryo Tatsuki, did predict “A Big Disaster on March 2011” in her 1999 manga "Watashi ga Mita Mirai" (The Future I Saw).

A photo of the manga page containing the prediction is also included.

Take a look for yourself.

—

https://japantoday.com/category/national/manga-predicting-a-major-disaster-in-july-affecting-summer-tourism-numbers-1

"There's no reason to worry," Miyagi's governor Yoshihiro Murai reassured travelers, adding that Japanese people are not fleeing.”

Tatsuki Ryo seems to have had several of her predictions come true. Is there a reason to worry? No. Is there a reason to avoid Japan in July? I would if I were a foreigner.

KazukoHarmonyToday  06:56 am JST

'Unscientific' Japan megaquake rumors

Was the news source NHK?

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/3910/

It's the part about predicting when an earthquake will occur, especially based on a manga, that is "unscientific".

Those tourists will just postpone their trip will come another time

I hope more of them will believe in it and stop coming to Japan for a while. We need a breather here from tourists...

From another online news article:

Japanese manga creator Tatsuki Ryo urges calm over 5th July earthquake prediction

The manga’s creator, Tatsuki Ryo, addressed the fears directly in a statement to Japanese media, calling for rationality and caution against misinformation. “I have always approached this matter with objectivity,” Ryo stated, adding, “The heightened attention to this prediction shows an increased awareness of disaster preparedness, which I view as a very positive development. I hope this attention translates into specific safety measures and readiness.”

Ryo also emphasised that the interpretation of the manga’s so-called premonitions should be left to individual judgement. However, he urged the public to rely on expert advice rather than allowing themselves to be overly influenced by speculative information. “What’s important is to act appropriately and consult experts,” Ryo observed.

Aly RustomToday  08:17 am JST

Some of the false posts cite a Japanese manga comic, republished in 2021, which predicts a major natural disaster in July 2025 -- based on the author's dream.

I remember seeing this on YouTube. It's supposed to happen on the 5th of July at 5am. That's the time the author gave. Also, the tsunamis are supposed to be 4 times higher than those on 3/11.

Pretty scary stuff.

Scary stuff if you believe Manga. I mean, why not throw in Godzilla as well?

As a person who has experienced a major Earthquake. I am living only 19 kilometres from the epicentre of the January 1st 2024 Noto Peninsula  Earthquake. I was at home when both the fore shock at 16:05 pm and at 16:10 the main 7.6 Earthquake occurred.  The depth of this earthquake was about 10 kilometers. Depth of the Earthquake including being on soft or hard ground are major factors in what you will witness in a major Earthquake.

Its really difficult for anyone to comprehend the sheer power, distruction, and transformation of the land just a major Earthquake can do. Those who has never been through a major Earthquake within 100km of the epicenter will find it incomprehensible. I am not going to get into the details of that experience of what it is like here because I will never get to the main point.

No matter where you are in Japan a major Earthquake can occur. If you come to Japan just for tourism you need to keep this in the back of your mind because when you are in a geological active country the likely hood of an Earthquake occurring is higher but will probably not happen. However weather it’s a major Earthquake or a mega Earthquake it will happen sometime and if that area is experiencing of tourists there will be problmes especially because many have probably never experienced an Earthquake not to mention what to do during or after one. That is the problem with overtourism in a country that is very geological active like Japan. An Earthquake will probably not occur when you visit, but it will occur sometimes in the future, and a failure to prepare will make an absolutely terrible situation exponentially worse.  

A little example of what happened after the 7.6 Noto Earthquake I experienced.

NO RUNNING WATER, NO BATHROOMS WOULD WORK.

NO DRINKABLE WATER for weeks. Water had to be brought in by the military. If this happens in a populated area it will be devastating. Water in my home was finally restored five months after the earthquake.

NO ELECTRICITY for almost a month.

NO INTERNET AND WIFI, You could not find any news from the outside.

You had to be in an evacuation shelter for months.

Roads were impassable

I live in a very rural area, if this happens in a major city. Food and even the bare life essentials will be limited.

Not to mention the Tsunami that occurred just after the Earthquake.

You have to factor all this in with mass tourism and that is why I say mass tourism in Japan is really an accident waiting to happen.

a Facebook group that claims to predict disasters in Japan has over a quarter of a million members, mainly in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Southern Chinese are notoriously superstitious.,

They certainly are and Taiwan is no stranger to earthquakes either.

Scary stuff if you believe Manga. I mean, why not throw in Godzilla as well?

Did you not read what other posters had to say? She did successfully predict 3/11.

Also, I never said I believed her. I simply stated what she was predicting was a scary scenario regardless of whether or not you believe her.

Japanese "experts" are also guilty of this. I've been coming to Japan every year for twenty years. And every year I hear on the news there is going to be a big earthquake in this region this year.

@藤原

Excellent first-person account of what it’s like to be near the epicenter of a major Japanese quake and what we should expect if faced with such an event.

Thanks for taking the time to post.

"You have to factor all this in with mass tourism and that is why I say mass tourism in Japan is really an accident waiting to happen."

You have a strong point, however "fear" of unexpected or expected earthquakes should not govern the tourism industry. Although I agree with you when it comes to preparations people should also prepare for the unthinkable.

Having lived through and having experienced a major disaster in Japan, I feel that I can speak from firsthand knowledge. Unlike a Hollywood movie in a foreign country, English won’t be the language that information is dispensed in nor will it be the language of communication. Your embassy won’t be contactable for several days either.Most foreign tourists caught up in such a scenario will be traumatized. Also, with regard to premonitions of doom? Who is to say that these are “unscientific” when the workings of the brain are so poorly understood. Telepathy, ESP, hypnosis are some phenomena that I know to be real but are still not admitted by the mainstream as fact. Personally, I would avoid Japan in July as a tourist. As a resident, I feel confident enough not to flee the country.

With regard to the caption on the picture.

“Japan has strict building codes to minimise damage from earthquakes”

Now it has but what of the millions of buildings that aren’t updated or new? How about bridges and expressways?

How quickly we forget…

A little example of what happened after the 7.6 Noto Earthquake I experienced.

NO RUNNING WATER, NO BATHROOMS WOULD WORK.

NO DRINKABLE WATER for weeks. Water had to be brought in by the military. If this happens in a populated area it will be devastating. Water in my home was finally restored five months after the earthquake.

NO ELECTRICITY for almost a month.

NO INTERNET AND WIFI, You could not find any news from the outside.

You had to be in an evacuation shelter for months.

Roads were impassable

I live in a very rural area, if this happens in a major city. Food and even the bare life essentials will be limited.

Not to mention the Tsunami that occurred just after the Earthquake.

You have to factor all this in with mass tourism and that is why I say mass tourism in Japan is really an accident waiting to happen.

Quite right. It's not just the Hong Kongers either who wouldn't have a clue how to cope.

HappSsmiles - I’m sure the government has taken the tourists into account in their planning

Lots of climate disaster predictions that didn't come true and those purport to be scientific.

This one's based on a dream?

Very good, too many Chinese tourists in Japan anyway.

Gabor

Great point, I like your style

Anyway, whose going to base anything on something in a comic, bleeding daft innit.

Regardless of the reasons, real or otherwise . Aren't the result what everyone wants?? Too many visitors/too much tourist/damaging local places/culture/etc/etc.