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Japan births in 2024 fall below 700,000 for first time
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Ricky Kaminski13
Culture in collapse, and no one really seems to care or mind, just that collective defeated resolution to one’s fate.
This is what happens folks when you take the sense that of personal agency away from your population through some sort of twisted concept and of group harmony. Blaming politicians or the economy either unfortunately won’t cut it. It’s much much deeper than that.
Would do anything to be able to get a peek at what Japan looks like in 2075. How did they cope with the cliff?
WoodyLee
Not only Japan, the entire western world and many parts of Asia are facing the same Syndrome.
Our youngsters are enjoying what life has to offer without having children, many have already decided to go it alone too.
Having children is a thing of the past plus many other obstacles that requires attention commitments that youngsters don't have the appetite for.
tora
From a time traveller: they didn't cope at all. There are abandoned towns and cities everywhere with many reclaimed by nature. The population is just 51,000,000 with 15% foreign born.
sakurasuki
Nothing being done in Japan, taking paternal leave even on the paper is everyone right but if someone try to do that can get consequence for their workplace. Don't blame the people for this.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-fathers-paternity-leave-sue-asics-a9105041.html
https://www.business-humanrights.org/es/%C3%BAltimas-noticias/japan-2-men-file-lawsuit-against-their-employers-for-alleged-demotion-pay-cuts-after-paternity-leave/
.
Years ago point already reach to the point of no return, the only thing can be said are soudesune, taihendesune.
https://www.newsweek.com/japan-population-decline-births-deaths-demographics-society-1796496
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Fighto!
Not necessarily a bad thing in a small nation that is notoriously overcrowded.
It seems Japanese have made a collective decision to depopulate, and will hopefully reap the rewards of all having more space to live, a better and quieter environment and much better ease of catching transport, finding jobs etc.
factchecker
Fewer humans on the planet is a good thing.
David Brent
“We’ve tried nothing, and we’re all out of ideas!”.
Tokyo Guy
A lower population with a reasonable demographic balance: good
A lower population with the current birth rate continuing; not good
Aly Rustom
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the situation a "quiet emergency",
very appropriate since the gov has been quiet about doing NOTHING about it.
pledging family-friendly measures like more flexible working hours
Yeah. heard that before.
YeahRight
We were very happy to welcome our first grandchild last year, and we are looking forward to another grandchild this September. Grandchildren are the best!
virusrex
You mean an uncertain job situation, repeated "once in a lifetime" crisis and a degradation of the international stability that have clear effects on daily life? because that is not what enjoying means. In reality people are just responsible enough to understand their situation would make the life of a child unnecessarily difficult and choose not to do it. After all those with higher stability and income tend to have more children, if your explanation was true this would not happen.
Exactly, deep (and expensive) social reform is necessary, but since it requires very impopular measures the politicians will not enact anything, just "calls" for things to change and a few cash handouts, then appear surprised when nothing changes.
collegepark30349
A smaller population is not necessarily a bad thing. However, I just don't think the Japanese gov't (LDP) is up to the task of structural and social reform needed to meet the challeges of a smaller population. They just keep doing things as always.
Case in point. There are neihboring elementary schoosl close to where I live. Two in an area that is growing ( new condos being built, rice fields being filled in for housing lots) and another is in an area of town that is shrinking (older homes, older people, younger folks moving out). The first two schools are now getting overcrowded - close to 40 students in some classes. The other school is shrinking, sometimes only one class per grade. I do some work with the BOE and this topic came up. I asked why don't they just redraw the school district lines to move some students from the crowded school to the less crowded on (common done in the States). They looked at me like I was crazy the said it would be impossible. They'd rather have overcrowded and empty schools than make a change.
Chabbawanga
We have spoken to great length on the subject, but unfortunately it hasn't resolved itself.
Perhaps a condom ban? Oh wait, noone uses them here anyway...
Negative Nancy
I'm on the side of preferring a smaller population in theory, but with worries about the management of the older population.
If I'm correct, however, the numbers quoted in the media are not inclusive of children born to foreign-born parents. Its a comparatively small but important demographic. Japan is changing and becoming more diverse, and there is a trend in there being more ethnically diverse children being born.
Kaowaiinekochanknaw
Sad.
A very bleak future without some drastic changes.
Chabbawanga
Just like has been the case throughout history, the burden of caring for the elderly should be on the family.
Raf
I read many commenters saying that a smaller population is not a bad thing...
It's not about a smaller population!
It's about the distribution, less young people to support more old people. That doesn't work unfortunately.
Many young Japanese are leaving Japan because they can see the writing on the wall. More tax and more social contributions...
My theory is that life, especially in Tokyo is not easy. How can you want to build a family if you are living in 9m2...?
I think Japan should implement twice a month a general power shutdown on Saturday night to boost fertility;-)
Jonathan Prin
Burden of old people skyrocketing with no money left for youngsters.
Who loves that worsening sick future, knowing it would just level out if fertility rate goes to 4 on average ! (Do the maths).
No future.
nickybutt
There are only 570,000 Japanese people living abroad...
wallace
The total number of Japanese residing overseas for three months or longer is over 1.29 million.
ian
Japan helps a lot of other nations.
Now it must focus on itself.
It has to cut down even a little on the budget for the outside and redirect resources towards its own problems.
yoshisan88
Recently my YouTube algorithm recommended me a video:
What a small town in Japan is like
https://youtu.be/IiU3Nk16BLQ?si=pHb84L4jORnGg1fY
It is very interesting. I highly recommend watching it.
Negative Nancy
Tokyo skews the averages quite a lot. The fertility rate there is 0.96. Its not a nice place to raise children, and the infrastructure is not built for family life. The picture is a little less bleak in other prefectures. Okinawa is 1.46, and that's not including children born to foreign nationals.
nickybutt
Yes, the 570,000 was for permanent residents abroad. However the total number of Japanese people living abroad (including short term) has dropped for 4 consecutive years. This mean that Raf's following statement,
is pure fantasy. Considering the population of Japan that isn't that many at all.
Garthgoyle
It's too dang expensive to have kids and things aren't getting any cheaper. That's worldwide.
How much is it for rice again?
ian
Japan is trying to encourage more people to work and trying to encourage more people to have kids at the same time.
Difficult predicament
Phoenixikki
A mathematician and researcher of Japan I trust claims that the population will drop to about 90-100 million where it will stabilize and equalize the chart. He doesn't think the situation is so tragic.
As for the abandoned towns in the countryside - that's a completely different issue. Few people actually realize that the glorious days of the rural towns, their busy shopping streets and construction of totally useless monuments and landmarks in the middle of nowhere happened in the Showa years when the population was barely 100 million!! There's hardly any logic in this situation: a thriving countryside with lower population and a decaying countryside with higher population. Overconcentration in several big cities is a different problem that needs different measures.
Fighto!
All eyes of the developed world will probably be on this news.
Maybe, just maybe, they are looking at Japan's example of consciously depopulating - while achieving per capita growth, which was thought impossible until now.
Will any Western nations have the courage to follow the lead of Japan and depopulate in a similar manageable and controlled way? Time will tell.
Chabbawanga
Exactly. If you look at it the current population is now as low as it was in the mid 80s, which was a great time for Japan, but if you look at the demographic shift you can see that the population of children vs elderly has basically inverted.
quercetum
Did they cross their arms across their chest to reject your idea or crossed their index fingers at you as if you're Dracula?
You’ve got two schools bursting at the seams like a commuter train at rush hour, and one school so empty it echoes when someone sneezes. Naturally, the logical solution would be to redraw the district lines and balance things out. But no—such radical thinking must be stopped at once. Maybe a letter?
To the Esteemed Members of the Board of Education, I write today to commend your unwavering commitment to the noble art of doing absolutely nothing or maybe in elegant Japanese: きつい、混んでいる。
Sven Asai
Easy to solve, in one minute. An administrative rule will do, stating for all over 20 years everything is taxed away up to welfare minimum until a child is born, of course with exemptions for medical reasons like infertility or severe diseases etc, psychological reasons like rape victims etc. But everyone else has to become mother or father, or otherwise live in poverty whole life. Many countries have strict rules, for example serving in an army and such, so why not? Sounds too hard? Well, yes, it is, but obviously nothing else helps anymore. And of course it also can be eased or abolished after the situation has become better in a very few years.
kohakuebisu
This is happening worldwide. It is happening almost as badly in Scandanavia where there are all kinds of family friendly policies and support for working women. This means that it is fine to introduce such policies if you think they will make people happy, but not if you think they will increase the birthrate, because there is zero evidence of that happening.
I don't know of a country anywhere which has stopped this trend. The birthrate is 1.08 in Colombia and under 1 in Thailand. You can't blame the LDP or small Japanese apartments for what's happening worse in Thailand. I leave you to speculate yourself on what the Thai equivalent of a "herbivore man" is.
Away from the mainstream media, there is some great work being done in academia, which you can still find on Twitter. I'll share the link but this presentation concludes
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slides_London.pdf
stormcrow
If Japan can’t procreate more young-uns, then it’s ‘Hello immigration!’
ian
And this applies to all of Japan?
quercetum
We can’t pin this one entirely on the LDP or the size of Tokyo apartments—though trying to raise a child in a space smaller than a decent walk-in wardrobe does take a certain level of optimism (or madness).
Start a club. Global Society for the Preservation of the Birthrate. First meeting’s BYOB—Bring Your Own Baby… or not.
Fighto!
Punishing people who consciously choose to not have children? Worst policy ever.
Anyway, why the obsession to keep growing the population to the point of severely punishing citizens if they don't? Developed nations like Japan (and other Western nations) are not like Africa, where it is economically beneficial to have many children.
Does the world really need billions more people? I'm not convinced it does.
collegepark30349
No, not this specific example, but the general idea that the gov't in particular and the LDP specifically are, in my opinion and experience, not up to the task of dealing with the results (consequences) of a smaller population. The population is shrinking, and is going to continue to shrink, that ship has sailed. Smaller number of births now means there will be fewer people to give birth in the future. My question is: instead of trying to encourage more people to have more children, which hasn't, isn't and won't work, what are the plans for structural and social reform needed to meet the challenges of a smaller population? I mean, if they can't even change school districts to get more kids into a school that is losing students...
Even if 3 million babies are born next yer and another 3 million the year after, it will take 20 years for them to become productive members of society. It would take another 30 years for their children to do so. What are the plans in the meantime? I don't know of anything, do you? Other than, let's have more omiai parties and make childbirth free.
I can't up vote this enough and I will be stealing it for my next staff meeting.
DeeZee
Who is gonna pay taxes for all the retirees? You’re going to shoulder the burden onto the smaller working class. I predict a rebellion among the youth with the coming years. At least the west had the foresight to import migrants which filled labor gaps. This country I don’t even know what they’re thinking.
fallaffel
Japan helps other nations because it gives benefits that are more than the costs (good example), or sometimes because it benefits Japanese companies with close ties to the government (bad example). Either way, it's certainly not a selfless act of giving...
Cephus
"Fantasy words - at best. Science fiction."
Give yourself a break from Manga, only the truth can set you free the rest as you said is fiction.
Moskollo
No surprises here. Some of the ideas have been bordering on imbecilic, a payment of ¥20k for having a child? It’s not about getting people to have the child, they have to make it easier to have children and still be able to afford to live, any idiot can have a baby but actually affording to pay for one is much more difficult.
If you can afford to have three children and live in Tokyo you seriously need to be rich, it’s that expensive to bring up children.
Stop offering help to big business and car drivers and focus on helping families, then the birth rate will start going up again..
Cephus
"Will any Western nations have the courage to follow the lead of Japan and depopulate in a similar manageable and controlled way? Time will tell."
What are you smoking? Are you calling the Japanese low birth rate "courage" meant to depopulate? Do you know currently a single employee is supporting almost five seniors in taxation? And this situation if not improved will even get worse. Upskirts photos and pornography is not helping the low births either.
carpslidy
Masks are a big factor
You have no chance of finding a partner if your afraid to take off your mask.
SomeWeeb
Why have a kid if the world is literally on fire and owned by billionaires? They want it all so bad, they can have it. Alone. See how much fun your money is when you can buy literally nothing with it because nobody is manufacturing and nobody will work construction.
Tsunematsu70
Japan is struggling with a rapidly aging population, but aging is not a problem that can be solved quickly. I think it is more realistic to focus on adapting society to the current situation of low birthrates and population decline. We should improve welfare services and create an environment where fewer people can still live comfortably. For example, healthcare systems, pensions, and city planning should be adjusted to meet the needs of a smaller, older population. While increasing the birthrate is important, preparing for a shrinking society is a more practical approach right now.
ian
Ah so you do think it applies to all of Japan
Dan Walsh
That's not how it should work and I hope that more and more young people get out and start voting and these elderly people start realizing that they've been muting on the system from 60 to 90 years old and it's not designed to support that behavior.
Personally I think the retirement age in Japan needs to go up to 70 if not 73. That includes me by the way I work here.
And the tax benefits to anyone currently in retirement need to be cut significantly only to support their medical and food needs. If they chose to rent all their life which is a poor decision many choose to make then they're out of luck on housing.
virusrex
That is wishful thinking, people meet in every kind of situation, not only those where masks are still useful to prevent the spreading of infections.
For example here are the most common ways people met before getting married
https://www.anniversaire.co.jp/brand/omotte/magazine/couple/19733/
As you can see "while riding the train" or "during a visit to the hospital" are not included. Instead people met where masks are not an issue like in SNS, matching apps, the workplace, school, club activities, etc.
Cephus
Depending on various situations, let's all start with self evaluations, whether we want/ need a child or children. I personally want two kids regardless of gender but I will also need much money to raise them as productive members of the society. Children are always a blessing from God.
Aly Rustom
Japan births in 2024 fall below 700,000 for first time
And it will continue to drop
timeon
Some statistics (from the world bank, 2023):
Countries having the same or lower fertility rate than Japan (1.2): Macao SAR (0.6), Korea (0.7), Hong Kong, China, Puerto Rico, Singapore, Ukraine, British Virgin Islands, Malta, Andorra, Spain, San Marino, Poland, Chile, Lithuania, (Japan), Italy, United Arab Emirates, Belarus, Thailand.
And the top 10: Mozambique (4.8), Afghanistan, Burundi, Angola, Mali, Central African Republic, Congo, Niger, Chad, Somalia (6.1)
SDCA
When I was at the Suitengu Shrine last month for Inu no Hi, it was pouring rain that day, yet there were so many other soon to be mothers/ fathers there that we had to wait a while before it was our turn. I was asking myself, wait, I thought the birth rate was declining? Then again the parents and relatives were also there so it may have just seemed like there was a bunch of people.
Jonathan Prin
So many optimistic comments while cliff is getting closer.
Again even if fertility rate would by magic raise to 2.1 tomorrow for Japan, it won’t stop the fall at all for the next 20 years at least.
Figures : 1 .605 - 686 equals a loss of 919 thousand in 2024. It was 838 in 2013 ! Please check.
Eating popcorn for countries like Japan. Many are going to be surprised soon about what a geometric progression is in maths applied to a population in the long run. With effect on taxes and income very high...
Abe234
Fighto!Today 10:37 am JST
ian
Bring in more foreign workers then, a lot more.
Main problem is the language barrier but maybe it's doable with current and emerging tech
ian
Bring in a lot more more capable students also by offering more scholarships
Peter14
Time for Japan to bite the bullet and embrace higher emigration rates to offset the decline in births.
Find ways that encourage family growth by having 4 day working week with no reduction in pay. Three days a week off will help young lovers have the time to create stronger relationships, grow together and have more children.
Most studies of 4 day weeks have found no decline in productivity and in many cases it increases productivity and happiness. Reducing stress, as well as costs will help, but there needs to be a huge change in attitudes with more tv shows, movies, social media all showing and talking about how great larger families are for everyone.
oya-57
The article said the number of births in Japan in 2024 fell below 700,000. I think Japan need to take some actions not to decrease birth rate than now, at least until the population of older generation would be stable. For that, it is not only aiming to increase people who want to have children, but it’s also important to increase educational investment in current children. For example, setting up day-care services for children or facility for after-school activity, and making improve the quality of school education that is key of education. By doing so, it will be expected that decrease of children who refuse to go to school, and improvement of skill to learn own self. I think that will connect to make responsibilities to raise children dispersal, so we will be able indirectly to achieve the goal “making people who want to have children increase”.
carpslidy
If you go through life hiding behind a mask you're hardly going to have the confidence to find a partner
ian
immigration
virusrex
Again, the data clearly proves your claims are bogus, repeating them do nothing to support them. People meet without problem in environments where masks are not present. If you want to make up reasons and blame the problem on them you have to at least make them credible.
HopeSpringsEternal
686K birth count overstates because conservatively at least 10% born to 1 or 2 Japanese National parents living outside Japan, and most will never live in Japan.
Thus, Japan's actual birth rate per woman inside Japan is thus not 1.15, but somewhere between 1 and 1.05, and dropping fast along with the aging population, so less than half the replacement population rate of 2.1.
Implication? Even if birth rate stabilizes, difficult given aging, Japan in just 3 generations, by end of this century, will have approx. 10% as many babies annually as 2024, excluding those born outside Japan, or approx. 60K
carpslidy
40 % of 20 year olds aren't taking off their masks in any situation
HopeSpringsEternal
Relentless collapse of births fuels an economic death spiral, as who can realistically invest in a market that's depopulating and aging? Answer, only the Govt and why accumulated debt and inflation are out of control, as all asset classes steadily lose 'real' inflation adjusted value
virusrex
Making up stuff is the opposite of an argument, a reference would be needed for this specific claim that is quite different from the first one you made and that also lacked any reference. It is not the same to still wear a Mask on situations like a public event with lots of people than in class all day long, specially ridiculous would be to think 40% of 20 year olds are going to matching parties without removing their masks.
So, a reference would be needed, not just say "yahoo", after all you can find a lot of people saying nonsense, that would not make that nonsense true.
carpslidy
Viruses do you have google?
Can you read Japanese ?
Then google it, just because it doesn't fit with your narrative that all corona measures were good and have had not effect on society doesn't make it a lie
carpslidy
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a207c8a604e998f96da3f0c759ad80fedd12078a
virusrex
If you make a claim you are the one that have to support it, I found only something very different from what you claimed, which would make you mistaken. That is the problem when you leave other people to prove what you claim, this means others can debunk those claims.
See, with this your claim that "40 % of 20 year olds aren't taking off their masks in any situation" is demonstrated as false.
ずっと着けたままの日が多い has a completely different meaning and obviously this "most days" do not include activities with the specific purpose of meeting like matching parties.
That is why sources are very important, twisting and misrepresenting what they say is a very common way to mislead people.
And this is of course completely ignoring the huge elephant in the room, that masking as a consequence of serious self-image problems (which the article only include as example, never making the claim that all 40% of the people in the survey have this problem) is a completely different thing from saying that masking is a cause of the self-image problems like you claimed.
Aly Rustom
I googled Japan's population decline and here is what I got-
the overall population decline stands at 919,237,
That's almost a million less people, which I predict will happen next year and will continue into the future.
kohakuebisu
The Japanese pension scheme has the world's top or second top investment fund. In the last couple of years, it has made money, i.e., paid out less than was paid in and earned in interest.
Idiots (not the poster above) call it a Ponzi but it is simply not true. Look up what a Ponzi is.
The number of old people will peak in around 2035 because the boomers are going to die off of old age. The number of people the scheme pays out to will start going down. It is also paying out less per person, because more and more retirees have blank periods or were hiseiki and not on shakai hoken. The retirement age may need some adjustment, but not by five years or more. It faces far less problems than an European pay as you go system.
The things for Japan to really worry about are massive labour shortages and vitality in the economy. If a big earthquake hits an urban area and all of a sudden 200,000 construction workers are needed, it will be a crisis.
HopeSpringsEternal
Actually worse, because birth count of 686K, includes approx. 75K born to 1 or 2 JN parents OUTSIDE Japan.
Offsetting, record immigration to Japan, 1.1M in past 3yrs (2022-2024) alone, surely rising in 2025. So, Japan, now 97% Japanese will be +1% less Japanese annually, for many decades to come given JN depopulation
Likely this year INSIDE Japan, there will be 3 JN deaths for every 1 JN birth and in ten years, 2035, will be 9 to 1, approx. 2.7M deaths, approx. 300K births, so just in 2035 Japan native depopulation will EASILY Exceed 2%
Have a nice day
carpslidy
ずっと着けたままの日が多い has a completely different meaning and obviously this "most days" do not include activities with the specific purpose of meeting like matching parties
Are you aware most people meet in regular situations ???
Second do you really think people who are afraid to show they'll faces in public have the courage to attend match making events mask or mask free
quercetum
I may be an idiot but I do know in a classic Ponzi scheme, early investors are paid with the money from new investors. In the Japanese pension system, retirees are paid with the money from… well, the shrinking pool of young people who are too busy working 80-hour weeks and eating fami chiki and rice triangles to even think about retiring. Microwave bentos are luxurious dinners.
Japan has more centenarians than sushi shops, and fewer babies than a panda sanctuary in a drought. It’s not fraud, of course — it’s policy. The difference? One gets you arrested, the other gets you a government brochure and a cartoon mascot explaining why you’ll need to work until you’re 87.
oya-57
The article said the number of births in Japan in 2024 fell below 700,000. I think Japan need to take some actions not to decrease birth rate than now, at least until the population of
Aly Rustom
Jeez, these are all very good points.
Not likely with this news but thanks.
HopeSpringsEternal
Easiest way for Japan to avoid massive immigration is to become serious about English language curriculum within public schools. This will encourage many more Japanese to marry non-Japanese living within or outside Japan, and thus substantially improve the birthrate.
Other more Orwellian alternative, Japan's Govt. taking matters into their own hands with test-tube baby factories, $taxing childless adult citizens to $fund births
virusrex
But those that end up marrying met up without any worries about masks in in SNS, matching apps, the workplace, school, club activities, etc The whole point of bringing a source where the type of meetings are ranked is to show that people that want to meet can do it without problems.
As you clearly recognize here, in this case masks are not a factor.
Nishiaki-48
According to the article, the number of births in Japan has dropped below 700,000. Prime Minister Ishiba described this as a quiet emergency. As a result, Prime Minister Ishiba announced a policy to promote reform of work styles and revitalization of local regions.I do not think that Prime Minister Ishiba's plan alone will solve the problem. I believe that more generous support for childcare and other services is the key to solving this problem. It is important to hear from those who have experienced child rearing and from those who are about to give birth to a child.
An elderly population causes other problems that need to be addressed quickly.
tjguy
Parenting is a lot of work. It costs money, time, and energy, but I think it is 100% worth it. It's a real shame that most of the younger generation is happy to have just 1 or even no children.
Working full time certainly does make it difficult, but parenthood and especially motherhood seems to have fallen out of fashion. These days if a woman doesn't work, everyone thinks there is something wrong with her. Too bad. I think we need to applaud any women/parents who are willing to make the necessary sacrifices to have a family! And companies need to support their families for the sake of the future of the country!
HopeSpringsEternal
If a society won't invest in itself, children being the ultimate investment, then why should anyone else?
That's the WHY for Japan's doom loop folks, and so sad that so few understand, best things in life not for "sale"