Japan Today Spotlight #7 | Japan's birth rate crisis: Why ‘have more babies’ won’t work

2.5 minutes in and I already have to turn this off. How does the same old story get told over and over again without actually identifying the actual issue?

This is not only my observation but something any Japanese person will tell you-- Japanese people are not good at interpersonal relationships. Well, guess what you need to be able to do in order to make children?-- form a deep interpersonal relationship with your partner.

Why are the Japanese not good at relationships? It stems from the fact that from birth they are taught to internalize their feelings and thoughts for the sake of the harmony in the group. As a person does this for the first 2.5 decades of their life they really don't build up an emotional maturity because they have never worked through any complex thoughts or situations, they have just suppressed them or run from the issue completely. Eventually you end up with a person who physically looks like an adult but has the emotional maturity of a child.

This is at the heart of the birthrate issue. You have a generation of young adults who are more concerned with reading manga, watching anime, and scrolling on social media all from the comforts of the house they grew up in with their mother cooking their meals, washing their clothes, and making their beds.

. You have a generation of young adults who are more concerned with reading manga, watching anime, and scrolling on social media all from the comforts of the house they grew up in with their mother cooking their meals, washing their clothes, and making their beds.

Population decline in Japan predates devices. As in other advanced economies.

You have a generation of young adults who are more concerned with reading manga, watching anime, and scrolling on social media all from the comforts of the house they grew up in with their mother cooking their meals

Not my three young-adult kids, all living on their own in Japan, one a new father. There's the cost of getting married, raising kids, general insecurity to be considered. Ponder that before dismissing young people as layabouts.

"Why are the Japanese not good at relationships? It stems from the fact that from birth they are taught to internalize their feelings and thoughts for the sake of the harmony in the group. As a person does this for the first 2.5 decades of their life they really don't build up an emotional maturity because they have never worked through any complex thoughts or situations, they have just suppressed them or run from the issue completely. Eventually you end up with a person who physically looks like an adult but has the emotional maturity of a child."

Well, given they've been around as a country for at least 3,000 years, these same traits have always been part and parcel of the Japanese DNA.

Considering they NEVER had population growth issues (until now), your "theory" falls flat on its face.

Simples.

Well, given they've been around as a country for at least 3,000 years,

Longer than that, in fact.、over 15K years.

"Not my three young-adult kids, all living on their own in Japan, one a new father. There's the cost of getting married, raising kids, general insecurity to be considered. Ponder that before dismissing young people as layabouts."

Congrats on becoming a grandparent recently:) You have obviously done a great job in raising your kids. You must also understand that your families situation is not the norm otherwise this wouldn't be an issue and countless videos/ articles on this topic wouldn't exist.

I wasn't exactly dismissing young people as layabouts..I was referring to what they do in their time off- I didn't mean that they do these activities instead of working.

But concerning the cost of raising kids- I just don't buy into the idea that it is too expensive and that's why people aren't making babies. After WWII, families in the countryside were averaging 3-4 children and these folks were not raking in the money.

You've mentioned the cost of getting married as prohibitive but you can go to the city hall and fill out the paperwork for minimal cost, nobody needs a big fancy wedding. Raising kids- a monthly stipend is given from the gov which should cover diapers and formula. Health care is basically free. Day care is based on income- if you are low income it is practically free as well. You mentioned general insecurity but this is life- nothing is guaranteed.

If someone wants more money go out and take a risk and develop a skill and start a business. But you don't see this here. People just follow sheepishly follow the regular pattern into their ¥220,000 a month job and then say they are helpless. I think it cannot be argued that many "adults" are not exactly adulting in this country..but this could be the case in many countries, not just Japan.

Thanks. Was an ALT during much of the time my kids were young, working 4-5 evenings a week at a conversation school to make ends meet. Sucked. Japanese family raised money to send one of my kids to juku- he's now a brain surgeon in Japan. Families, situations are different. Had my Japanese relatives not been able to help, things would have been quite different.

But concerning the cost of raising kids- I just don't buy into the idea that it is too expensive and that's why people aren't making babies

It is, really. Here in Niigata, kindergarten education (保育園) costs are cheaper than elsewhere, but... still expensive, at least when my kids were young. On my ALT salary. It was tough.

I will just repost what I wrote to another blog yesterday:

With regard to why Japan’s population shrinking, it’s pretty obvious once you live there for awhile and observe what’s going on up close.

All of the jobs are in the cities. All of the land is in the countryside. Furthermore, when I say cities, I am really only talking about Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka, and maybe a few other places. That’s the main problem.

What this leads to is the following pattern: Everyone in the country moves to the cities for work. This drives up the price of land and rent (and a few other things) in the cities. Japanese companies also compensate employees not based on ability but based on how long they’ve worked for the company. Between the high rent and low wages and all the jobs being in the same place so you have to move to the place with high rent, most people cannot even afford to get married and have kids until they are past 30 years old.

Furthermore, Japanese work culture is stupid, unproductive, and involves staying at work for long hours for literally no reason other than your boss is still there. This means that one parent (the wife) must stay at home to raise children, and the other parent is unavailable to help because they are working. This makes having more than one or two kids impossible unless grandparents live nearby, which only happens if you were born in the big city in which you work.

Adding further fuel to the fire is that the aging population requires more financial support and taxes have been raised which have hurt working age populations, making it even harder to have kids. Comically, they also launched a disastrous move to encourage tourism to Japan to reinvigorate the countryside. Predictably, tourists only visit the big cities (Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto) further increasing the cost of living in the only place young, working-age people live, making the low childbirth problem worse.

It’s a disaster. Are there solutions? Yes. Are there solutions the Japanese government as-is can imagine? No. Until that changes, expect the decline to accelerate and go lower faster than even the pessimistic models predict.

That’s the situation.

Population decline in Japan predates devices. As in other advanced economies.

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The truth of the matter is that over 85% of Japanese live in large cities where there isn’t room to have a family.

The Japanese government encourages this trend thus adding to the population decline.

In terms of living space per person, the lowest prefecture in Japan is actually Okinawa, not Tokyo.

https://resources.realestate.co.jp/living/how-much-living-space-does-the-average-household-have-in-japan/

Okinawa has the highest or near highest birthrate. It also has very low wages, but what it does have is traditional family structures, not lots of unconnected individuals. That's probably what drives the high birthrate.

@Daisen

Interesting points.

In my time here, I have really yet to meet entrepreneurs.

Of course, there are a few but I have yet to meet people thinking ‘out of the box’

Compare the young today with those postwar entrepreneurs that started up major businesses and became successful, it’s completely different.

Good listen. I always wonder why everyone focuses on economic factors and work-life balance stuff so much. And a 5% drop since last year alone? I guess all of the hot air and promises from politicians amounts to less than zero. I'm convinced that the problem is even much deeper and harder to solve than that though. The interpersonal relationship factors.

What was it? 46% of men in their 20s and 30% of women have never even had a boyfriend or girlfriend, and the figures aren't much better for 30-year-olds either. Japan has a loneliness problem, and after just spending 3 weeks home in Australia where people are out, about, open and chatty, coming back to Japan, the vibe is palpably different. I always get this dreaded 'culture in collapse' feeling for the first few days back, but then I reaclimatize, and it becomes the norm again. Trust me, it's not!

@RK

Came back from Thailand once feeling so upbeat but after 10 minutes in Japan ….

I listen to the Japanese contributors, economics are a major contributor to multiple child families, Sans Doubt. but to have a family, Iron-speak. too many social-media interferences and buy buy distractions. My guy was so influenced by his 'gal' we need clothing blah, blah. but no UPbeat (thanks Kuri). We 'persuaded' him to get away and into a mixed post-grad uni hall. mmmh? any memories of mixed uni halls?? :):) connected single individuals. what a complex life we live. afraid to make the essential pick-up line (consensual of course) of any young guy or gal.

I also get the feedback that the old tradition of G/Ps an Ps contributing to the new family members education trust funds at yr1 & yr3 no longer exists, comments from japanese forum members only please

 in Australia where people are out, about, open and chatty, coming back to Japan, the vibe is palpably different. 

Coming back from visiting England give me the same vibe. I find Japanese society to be reserved and distant compared to that which I'm used to. In the UK, strangers will converse cheerily with each other apropos of nothing, and there is none of the awkwardness found in Japan. On the other hand, you're more likely to get stabbed in England, so there's that.

But lack of finances and interpersonal skills etc. are misdiagnoses, in my opinion. There has been a paradigm shift in the aspirations of young folk, who simply don't want children. In the same way you might not want to get a cat.

The new generation are different. They spurn cars, motorbikes, beer, tobacco & it's stronger cousin, and permanent position employment. They also see marriage as an antediluvian construct with a 50% chance of failure, and children as a complicated and unnecessary burden.

Not everyone wants children; indeed, not everyone likes children. More and more people each day, it appears, and that's fine.

@alex

It's fine until it's not fine. The issue is that, back in the day, you needed to rely on your own children to take care of you in old age (60+ for most people, 70+ for healthier people). Nowadays, you rely on government programs which rely on the society's collective children to fund.

And Japan is beginning to find out that it's not fine. You raise your taxes to make up for the lack of young workers. Then, when raising taxes stops working, inflation starts happening because you borrow too much money to fund the programs.

Feedback loops start occurring. Smart Japanese leave the country to work in countries where they can make more money. Japanese women who want to have kids move abroad. In my community in Michigan, for example, most Japanese women have 2-4 kids regardless of if they have a foreign or Japanese husband. And, as Japanese living in Japan aren't used to interacting with or even seeing children, fewer and fewer Japanese want to have children and more and more are annoyed with children.

That's what you're seeing with the new generation, and you're seeing the result of too many decades of inaction.

Dennis, of course the negative loop you described is happening in Japan.

I say interpersonal skills of most Japanese is just an aggravating factor.

In the world, media shows career is more important than family.

Also empowering women means career over family for most

No kids no purpose psychologically (for really modt minds).

I am driven in life to make a better world for my children, not a static one for leisure only.

As pointed out, other countries too are facing drastic fall in demography so it is not concerning Japan only. Hence my above more general factors expressed.

Seducing women and having kids shall be well considered, not despised by society.

Probably also a natural negative feedback loop kicks in, when density in cities gets too high.

We have all heard the fact that rats start eating between them when there are too many in the same place. About same result but not with same ways because we are humans.

One of the factor at least, common to the world.

As pointed out, other countries too are facing drastic fall in demography so it is not concerning Japan only. Hence my above more general factors expressed.

Seducing women and having kids shall be well considered, not despised by society.

Yes, essentially the more "modern" a country is, the lower its birthrate. Japan got to modernity/the future earlier than many other countries, but they've all caught up and overtaken Japan, which shouldn't be surprising given Japan's socially conservative (e.g., I want to be a housewife") underbelly.

I am a strong believer in work to live, not live to work. While I have a successful one, I am not especially proud of my "career" and see the word as a mirage. Few jobs in society would be worth doing every day for free, my own job included. People raise their own children for free because its worth it. People, here women, should not base their self worth on something they need to be paid to do. There are much better forms of validation.

The bubble collapsed and for 30 straight years the Government spent $ Billions on stimulus packages to keep businesses afloat. They also increased the consumption tax from Zero to 10%... and yet the National Dept continued to increase. The Government the whole time knew the population was trending down but instead of really addressing the issue they used tax money to support the old boy clubs. Even now they continue to try to come up with ideas that promote families but keeps the business community happy. The 1st thing they need to do is force the banks to provide housing loans, even for homes that are over 20 years old. Why don't they do it... because those loans would hurt New Home Builders and Real Estate companies. Most new families in the USA buy a smaller old home and fix it up... then a few years later they sell it and... often at a profit, and buy a bigger home. But in Japan... homes almost always lose money, the investment never pays off. If a new family, one without a lot of money, could get a loan on the old Akiya homes in Tokyo... they then could afford a house, but banks will not do it. They're in bed with the Real Estate industry, the Home Building Industry and biggest of all the Politicians. This not the answer to the number of children being born in the country but it could help if young families found housing more affordable.

No, it's not complex. Just make babies, it's really easy, believe it.

who would want to make a baby with these prices and no time off of work?

Fwiw, the families of five mentioned above, assuming the kids are 12, 10, 8, 6 and 3, would get 110,000 a month in child benefit. It's now 30,000 a month for the third and later children. You now get 10,000 a month child benefit for kids in SHS. Until 2024, it stopped at JHS. If one of the kids is a baby, the family would get slightly more.